Advanced TV revenues are forecast to grow by a 5 percent growth rate from 2019 to 2025 to USD 22 billion. This includes the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD display, QDEF, dual cell LCD, and miniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. This quarter’s update adds microLED as well as rollable OLED TVs.
An advanced TV may be defined as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs, and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The historical data in the report allows analysis by feature for advanced LCD TVs, including:
QDEF TV. TV using a quantum dot enhancement film; these TVs are sold as QLED by Samsung, TCL, and others.
MiniLED. LCD TVs with a miniLED backlight, as sold by TCL starting in 2019.
Dual cell. LCD TVs employing dual-cell technology, as introduced by Hisense in 2019.
LCD others: This category includes LCD TVs with 8K resolution, that do not fall in any other category.
The historical data for OLED TV includes only one product configuration, LGD’s white-OLED (WOLED) technology, but the forecast in the report includes QD Display, which designates QD OLED and successor technologies such as QNED and EL-QLED, as well as rollable OLED and microLED starting this quarter. The forecast for microLED TV is based on product sizes less than 100-inch, as products in larger sizes such as Samsung’s 146-inch The Wall belong in a different category than TV.
Advanced TV shipments in 2Q20 were flat QoQ and increased by 12 percent YoY at 2.2 million units. The largest screen sizes recorded bigger gains, with 75-inch advanced LCD TVs up 29 percent and 77-inch OLED TVs up 100 percent compared to a year ago. Smaller QDEF TVs (under 49-inch) were introduced in 2019 and these sizes are growing rapidly from a low base in terms of unit shipments, with 111 percent growth YoY in 2Q.
From a revenue perspective, 2Q disappointed with revenues declining 20 percent YoY as price declines overwhelmed volume increases. Even the largest TVs showed revenue declines, with 75-inch LCD down 12 percent and >75-inch LCD TV down 15 percent. Advanced LCD TV revenues for 55-inch declined by 14 percent YoY, and 55-inch OLED TV revenues declined by 38 percent YoY in 1Q. Across all screen sizes and resolutions, OLED TV revenues declined by 29 percent YoY in 1Q, while advanced LCD TV revenues decreased by 15 percent.
In 2Q20, among all advanced TV products Samsung increased unit shipments by 52 percent YoY, increasing its unit share to 61 percent by expanding its QDEF product line into more affordable models. TCL and Hisense advanced LCD TV shipments declined YoY. In OLED TV, the top three global brands (LG, Sony, and Panasonic) increased shipments YoY, but smaller players TPV/Philips and Skyworth saw shipments decline YoY.
Samsung also leads the industry in revenue share for advanced TV, but Samsung’s revenue share of 54 percent in 1Q is lower than its unit share, since QDEF sells at a discount to OLED TV in the screen sizes where they compete. LG has sustained the #2 position in revenue share, and regained five share points in 1Q after some share erosion during 2019. LG’s revenue share in 1Q of 24 percent was a slight decrease from their 25 percent share in 1Q19. Sony sustained the #3 position in brand revenue with 8 percent share, consistent with its share a year ago, but down from a 9 percent share in 4Q19.
By geography, Western Europe and North America have been the largest regions for advanced TV. These two regions represented a combined 64 percent and 65 percent of advanced TV units and revenue in 1Q20. Shipments to Western Europe increased 38 percent YoY in 1Q20, but revenues increased only 2 percent YoY. Shipments to North America increased 66 percent YoY and revenues increased 21 percent YoY, while China shipments increased by 21 percent YoY but revenues declined by 9 percent.
The share battle in China has gotten increasingly intense. China has become a true battleground with four companies with double-digit percent market share. Samsung share of advanced TV increased to an all-time high in 1Q with 42 percent unit and revenue share, and Huawei has emerged as a major player with advanced LCD TVs, capturing 18 percent share in 1Q. Hisense introduced OLED TV in 2019, but this did not prevent the company’s share from eroding to 14 percent in 1Q. LGE fares poorly in China with less than 5 percent share.
Skyworth, once a major player with 24 percent share in 2Q18, has seen its position diminish to only 3 percent share in 1Q20.
In North America, Samsung enjoys a dominant position on the strength of its large-screen product portfolio. Samsung continued to lead in 1Q20 with 63 percent unit share and slightly lower revenue share of advanced TV. LG has sustained its #2 position in both units and revenue and regained some share in 1Q20 after steadily losing share throughout 2019. Vizio emerged as a major player in the market with affordable QDEF TVs; Vizio’s revenue share is much lower than its unit share but it has established its position as a clear #3 brand in advanced TV.
Sony’s revenue share is higher than its unit share, but is still only 5 percent.
In Western Europe, Samsung continued to lead in 1Q20 with 63 percent unit share but this has fallen from a peak of 68 percent in 1Q19. Samsung’s revenue share in this region is only 52 percent as OLED TV sells at premium prices in Europe, and Samsung’s advantage in larger sizes means less to European consumers. LGE regained unit share to 21 percent in 1Q20, and took 27 percent revenue share with premium OLED TV prices. Sony has been able to sustain a double-digit revenue share in Europe with an attractive OLED TV product line, but Panasonic and Philips have seen their positions erode to low-single digits.
Another interesting cut of the brand data is the battle by screen size, with the 65-inch battle. Samsung continues to lead this size category in 1Q20 with more than 50 percent unit share, but Samsung’s revenue share in 65-inch is lower than unit share, as QLED sells at a discount to OLED. LG regained some share in 1Q20 after steadily losing share throughout 2019, sustaining its #2 position with 27 percent share of revenues in this size. Sony’s share has deteriorated with slower growth than the market. Vizio has emerged with a 6 percent global market share in units in 65-inch even though selling only in North America, but Vizio’s revenue share is less than 5 percent since they sell at lower prices.
The battle for larger sizes is no battle at all, as in 70-inch+ Samsung captures more than 75 percent of both units and revenue. Samsung saw its position slip a bit in 1Q20, though, as LGE and Sony sales of 77-inch OLED increased dramatically, bringing their revenue shares to 10 percent and 7 percent, respectively, and reducing Samsung’s revenue share to 77 percent.
While the COVID-19 impact will slow growth in 2Q to 11 percent YoY, growth will resume in the second half of 2020 and 4Q unit growth will reach 27 percent YoY. OLED 48-inch will start in limited volumes, adding to the product mix for OLED, and LGD’s increasing OLED capacity will allow OLED to hold its unit share of advanced TV, and increase OLED’s revenue share. Across all technologies and sizes, advanced TV unit shipments are expected to increase by 30 percent in 2020 compared to 2019.
OLED TV revenues are expected to increase for the full year over 2019, with 11 percent revenue growth in 4Q on higher volumes and modest price declines. Advanced LCD TV revenues, though, are expected to be flat, with 1 percent growth for the full year 2020 and a 2 percent decline in 4Q20 compared to 4Q19, as aggressive pricing overcomes volume gains.
Turning to the long-term forecast, advanced TV shipments will grow from less than 10 million in 2019 to nearly 35 million in 2025, a 24 percent CAGR for that time period. OLED TV units are expected to grow at a 31 percent CAGR from 2019-2025 to 14.7 million units, while advanced LCD TV units are expected to grow at a 21 percent CAGR to 20.8 million units. The largest sizes will see the biggest growth, with growth in 75-inch+ expected to be 36 percent, and growth in 75-inch+ OLED even higher at 87 percent CAGR.
From a revenue standpoint, while the overall category will see revenue growth, OLED TV is expected to capture all the revenue growth in advanced TV, as advanced LCD revenues are expected to be the same in 2025 compared to 2019. OLED TV revenues are expected to grow at a 19 percent CAGR from 2019-2025 to USD 16.2 billion. Advanced LCD TV revenues were USD 10 billion in 2019, are expected to peak at USD 11.1 billion in 2022-23, then decline to USD 10 billion by 2025. Even larger size LCD TVs are not expected to have revenue growth as Samsung shifts its emphasis from its QLED LCD products to QD OLED.
OLED TV revenue growth is expected to be dominated by 75-inch+ as these products become more affordable with MMG by LGE and Samsung. Samsung’s QD OLED product portfolio is expected to have larger average screen sizes than LG’s white OLED, because of Samsung’s push to larger screens in LCD. Further, Samsung’s QD OLED products will be exclusively 8K resolution, which gives another reason for larger average screen sizes. High prices and large screen sizes will allow QD display to grow to nearly USD 7 billion in revenues in 2025, capturing 25 percent of advanced TV revenues.
While 8K will be dominated by LCD TV technologies in its early stages, when Samsung introduces QD OLED, this technology will quickly dominate the revenue share for 8K TV and by 2023 will take nearly 50 percent unit share. White OLED is not expected to be affordable in 8K, so only very small volumes of this technology are anticipated, but LCD technologies will continue to show growth in 8K products.
Based on Display Supply Chain Company (DSCC) Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report.