After declining unit-shipment volumes in 2017, global TV shipments are forecast to grow 3.6 percent YoY in 2018, with additional 1.4 percent growth in 2019. Of the 226 million TVs expected to ship in 2019, more than half will be ultra high definition (UHD) models, the majority of which are 4K. However, 8K TVs from major global TV brands will launch toward the end of 2018, kicking off the next wave of resolution transition.
Growth in the TV market typically is the result of more attractive retail prices for large-screen sizes and the continued commoditization of 4K resolution, driving TV replacements and upgrades. However, this growth through price compression has a negative effect on profits, so TV brands are actively looking for more growth from advanced TV models to improve earnings.
Technologies like 8K, OLED, and quantum dot (QD) carry substantial premiums, and even 4K TVs still carry premiums of more than 35 percent at screen sizes where 1080p resolution is still an option, such as
40-inch to 49-inch TVs. The 8K TV market will grow from less than 20,000 units in 2018 to more than 430,000 in 2019 – eventually approaching 2 million units by 2020. All of this growth will be centered on 60-inch and larger screen sizes, with 65-inch TVs accounting for more than half of the volume.
OLED TV is expected to grow more than 40 percent in 2019, rising to 3.6 million units. This growth is in line with previous forecasts, because demand is essentially matching industry production capacity. The size mix still favors 55-inch TVs, based on current prices, but it will transition to mostly 65-inch TVs by 2020, when new production capacity is optimized for larger screen sizes, and when substantial growth is expected in the OLED TV category.
Quantum dot LCD TV shipments are now forecast to exceed 4 million units in 2019, based on more aggressive pricing and the introduction of transitional quantum-dot-equipped LCD TV models. The high-end prices of non-QD-equipped LCD TV models and the prices of the low end QD-equipped LCD TV models have moved closer together. This extension of the quantum dot LCD TV lineup into more moderate price ranges effectively reduces the quantum dot premium to less than 100 percent at mid-range sizes, opening up the category to a larger addressable market of consumers.