2021 is proving a good year for Advanced TVs. The top five Advanced TV brands, Samsung, LGE, Sony, TCL, and Panasonic will close the year having sold more units than they ever have. Also, an important shift is underway; consumers’ are showing a preference for Advanced TVs that have larger screens. Advanced TV shipments in Q2FY21 jumped by 70 percent YoY to 4 million units.
Advanced TV shipments by size and display technologyship
In 2020, the smaller screen sizes of Advanced TVs recorded the biggest gains, in the first half of 2021 it was all about the biggest sizes. Advanced LCD TVs of 75-inch increased 88 percent YoY to 317K, and Advanced LCD TVs larger than 75-inch increased 121 percent to 150K, while OLED TVs 77-inchs and larger increased by 308 percent to 113K, more than the total cumulative volume of this category for all years up to the end of 2019.
While OLED TV share of all Advanced TV had declined during 2018-2020, the additional capacity from LG Display’s Guangzhou fab combined with rising LCD TV panel prices has helped OLED TV regain share in the premium category. OLED TV shipments increased by 169 percent YoY in Q2FY21, while Advanced LCD TV shipments increased by a more modest 36 percent YoY, and OLED TV share increased from 25 percent in Q2FY20 to 40 percent in Q2FY21.
In North America, Samsung enjoys a dominant position on the strength of its large-screen product portfolio but has seen its share erode as competitors in both Advanced LCD and OLED TV grow share. LG increased Advanced TV shipments to North America by 290 percent YoY to increase its unit share to 26 percent.
In Western Europe, while Samsung continued to hold its position as the #1 brand, its share erode with increasing competition. Samsung captured 60 percent share of Advanced TV units in Western Europe in Q2FY21, but that figure was down 11 percent compared to Q2FY20. Samsung remains ahead of its nearest competitor, but LGE gained at Samsung’s expense with 24 percent share of units. The Advanced TV market in Western Europe is increasingly becoming a two-horse race as Sony’s share has stagnated and other brands including, Philips and Panasonic, have lost share.
Another interesting cut of the brand data is the battle by screen size. In 55-inch worldwide unit shipments, Samsung continues to lead but that lead has narrowed. Samsung’s unit share of 55-inch Advanced TV declined from 50 percent in Q2FY20 to 36 percent in Q2FY21, while LG’s share of 55-inch Advanced TV units increased YoY from 20 percent to 34 percent Sony, Panasonic and TCL round out the top five brands for 55-inch Advanced TV.
In the largest size category of 70-inch+ Samsung has seen its position erode from a near-monopoly in 2018 to 2019 to mere dominance in 2020-2021 as LGE and Sony sales of 77-inch OLED and TCL sales of 75-inch LCD have increased dramatically. In Q2FY21, Samsung still captured 63 percent unit share of 70-inch + Advanced TV shipments, but this figure was down from 77 percent in Q2FY20. Meanwhile, LG, Sony and TCL gained share.
Worldwide Advanced TV units by price band for 1HFY21
Another last valuable cut of the data- Units by brand by price band. Samsung’s lead position is mostly a function of its dominance in sets under USD 1000. Samsung’s strategy of pushing its QLED product line toward mainstream price points has allowed it to thrive, but Vizio, TCL and Hisense also appear as competitors at these lower prices. LG’s OLED TVs give it the leading position in the range of USD 1000- USD 2000 and a strong position in the market above USD 3000, and TCL’s MiniLED TVs have given that brand a foothold in the price range of USD 1000 – USD 2000.
There will be strong demand for Flat Panel Displays (FPD) across a range of applications, combined with a dramatic increase in panel prices to lead to a 39 percent YoY increase in flat panel display revenues in 2021. While the surge in revenues will not be repeated beyond 2021, industry revenues will settle at a new, higher plateau, allowing better profitability for the entire display supply chain.
Flat panel display revenues by application, 2018 – 2025
After declining in 2019, total revenues will increase by 6 percent YoY in 2020 to USD 121 billion and will jump by 39 percent in 2021 to USD 168 billion driven by continuing strong demand and the unprecedented increase in LCD large-area panel prices. While mobile phones (smartphones plus feature phones) have been the application with the highest revenue in recent years, the dramatic increase in LCD TV panel prices along with increasing screen sizes, will allow TV revenues to jump into first place in 2021 at USD 52.6 billion as both OLED TV and LCD TV show big revenue increases. Revenues for monitors, notebooks and tablets are expected to grow by 48 percent, 84 percent and 35 percent, respectively, to a total of USD 43 billion.
After 2021, revenues will plateau at close to USD 160 billion, much higher than the pre-pandemic 2019 revenues of USD 113 billion. Continuing growth in automotive and mobile phone displays will offset a modest pullback in TV and IT panel revenues to keep the total close to constant.
Flat Panel Display Revenues by Display Technology, LCD (L) and OLED (R), 2018 – 2025
Revenues by display technology for LCD and OLED. OLEDs will continue to gather an increasing percentage of display revenues, but the big increase in revenues in 2021 will go to LCD. LCD panel revenues will increase 45 percent in 2021 to USD 126 billion, and then to regress in the following years to USD 100 billion in 2023. OLED revenues will see a more modest 26 percent YoY increase in 2021 to USD 43 billion, but the increasing penetration of OLED in smartphones, TVs and other applications will allow OLED revenues to continue to grow to USD 61 billion in 2025. While TV has been the largest application for LCD revenue, OLED revenue has been and will continue to be dominated by smartphones.
While the revenue picture for the display industry shows a clear discontinuity from the pandemic, which has driven LCD panel prices up sharply, the forecast for units and area shows a less dramatic change. Flat panel display units across all applications suffered a 2 percent decline in 2020, mainly because of an 8 percent decline in mobile phone panels, which make up more than half of the total. Unit shipments are expected to rebound with 8 percent YoY growth to 3.54 billion units in 2021 as mobile phone panel shipments increase by 6 percent to nearly 2 billion units. Unit growth is expected to continue in 2022-2024 at a more modest 2 percent to 3 percent growth rate to reach nearly 3.9 billion units in 2025.
Flat Panel Display Area by Application, 2018 – 2025
FPD area by application, which is dominated by TV, will continue to be so. TV unit shipments will be close to flat, but area will continue to increase with increasing screen size. TV panel area grew by 6 percent in 2020 to 173 million square meters, and will grow to another 8 percent in 2021. TV area growth will continue but at a slower pace as the growth of screen size slows but total TV panel area will reach 215 million square meters by 2025.
In 2021, for Advanced TV brands, the increase in the price of LCD panels and OLEDs will translate into higher revenues than last year. However, this increase will not be a new plateau. Revenues from Advanced TVs are projected to pull back moderately after 2021. Also, Samsung’s edge over rivals in certain price brands may be eroding. While its dominance in the Advanced TV segment at the USD 500 to USD 1000 price band of is overwhelming, in higher price bands, LG is neck and neck or ahead.
Based on research conducted by DSCC